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Realistic cost estimates at pre-construction stage: is what we present to the board defensible?

POLL: What is the single biggest threat to the reliability of your pre-construction cost estimate?

  1. 1. In your experience, which of the following six factor categories most commonly undermines the reliability of a conceptual cost estimate at the point it goes to your board or client for approval?

    • Estimator capability and experience — insufficient career experience, limited fieldwork exposure or inadequate time allocated to prepare the estimate; the human factor that no methodology fully compensates for.
      0%
      0
    • Quality and completeness of project definition — the brief is too immature when the estimate is produced; scope, specification, quality standards and programme are insufficiently defined to anchor costs reliably.
      0%
      0
    • Availability and quality of historical data — comparable benchmark projects are absent, cost databases are out of date, or market intelligence on current unit rates is unreliable or not systematically applied.
      0%
      0
    • Project complexity and site conditions — level of construction difficulty, underground and geotechnical unknowns, or site-specific constraints that are either unquantified or underweighted in the contingency allowance.
      0%
      0
    • Market and commercial conditions — competition levels, procurement route, resource price volatility and supply chain capacity at the time of estimate that make any fixed benchmark unreliable within the project timeline.
      0%
      0
    • Contingency and risk allowance methodology — the contingency percentage applied is a default rather than a risk-assessed figure; risks are not individually identified, valued or allocated, leaving the estimate structurally optimistic from the outset.
      0%
      0

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Featured Replies

Research in the International / Journal of Construction Engineering and Management identifies a consistent pattern of optimism bias in pre-construction cost estimates, particularly in occupier-led projects where the design is still evolving and market benchmarks are applied without adequate project-specific adjustment.

The result is a board approval at RIBA Stage 2 based on a number that bears limited resemblance to the out-turn cost. By the time the real figure surfaces, commitment is too deep to reverse and the conversation becomes about finding savings rather than making a genuine decision.

How do you build genuine contingency and risk allowance into a business case without the number being rejected by Finance as too conservative? What's your methodology for getting to a defensible estimate early?

Couple of links below for those who want to read more on topic. Spoiler alert, out of the six categories of factors that determine whether a conceptual cost estimate is reliable before a spade hits the ground, Bozorgmehr Nia, Taheri and Jamalpour 2023 study's most striking finding: time allocated to the estimate is rated by practitioners as the single most influential factor of all twenty categories assessed.

(50) Achieving Realistic Cost Estimates in Building Construction Projects: A Reliability Assessment of Pre-Construction Stage Cost Estimates

Impact of Optimism Bias Regarding Organizational Dynamics on Project Planning and Control | Journal of Construction Engineering and Management | Vol 137, No 2

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