Realistic cost estimates at pre-construction stage: is what we present to the board defensible?
POLL: What is the single biggest threat to the reliability of your pre-construction cost estimate?
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1. In your experience, which of the following six factor categories most commonly undermines the reliability of a conceptual cost estimate at the point it goes to your board or client for approval?
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Estimator capability and experience — insufficient career experience, limited fieldwork exposure or inadequate time allocated to prepare the estimate; the human factor that no methodology fully compensates for.0%0
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Quality and completeness of project definition — the brief is too immature when the estimate is produced; scope, specification, quality standards and programme are insufficiently defined to anchor costs reliably.0%0
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Availability and quality of historical data — comparable benchmark projects are absent, cost databases are out of date, or market intelligence on current unit rates is unreliable or not systematically applied.0%0
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Project complexity and site conditions — level of construction difficulty, underground and geotechnical unknowns, or site-specific constraints that are either unquantified or underweighted in the contingency allowance.0%0
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Market and commercial conditions — competition levels, procurement route, resource price volatility and supply chain capacity at the time of estimate that make any fixed benchmark unreliable within the project timeline.0%0
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Contingency and risk allowance methodology — the contingency percentage applied is a default rather than a risk-assessed figure; risks are not individually identified, valued or allocated, leaving the estimate structurally optimistic from the outset.0%0
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